For all the fun we Apple bloggers have with Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster’s insistence that Apple’s going to come out with some sort of amazing smart TV, you have to hand it to the man for two things. First, his persistence in believing that dream and second, his ability to go public yet again with a new prediction on when Apple’s fabled smart television will appear.
Munster first made his prediction at Business Insider’s Ignition conference in 2011, and he’s been wrong each and every year. Saying that he was “paying penance” for being incorrect on the timing of the mythical device, Munster doubled down on his bet by saying that it will arrive in 2016.
He based that prediction on a sudden realization that “Apple takes a long time between products.” Based on a market for connected TVs of about 220 million units worldwide, Munster boldly “assumes” that they’ll get about 10 percent of the market, or sell 22 million units in the first year. And even better: it’s going to cost about US$1,500 or “double a comparable-sized TV”. A look at Amazon shows that LED TVs in the 50 – 60 inch range are selling for about $750, so now he’s also predicted the size of the unit.
Personally, I’m looking forward to the Ignition conference in 2016, when Gene Munster talks about how the Apple smart television will be arriving in 2020… Now, sit back and listen to the man himself: